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____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 1 Montreal Canadiens = 4.52 17 8 3.92( 27) 4 3 | 8 4 | 4.44 2 | 4.52 1 | 4.54 1 2 New York Rangers = 4.49 17 9 3.92( 26) 7 3 | 10 3 | 4.55 1 | 4.49 2 | 4.52 2 3 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.43 16 10 4.02( 15) 4 3 | 8 7 | 4.33 5 | 4.44 3 | 4.40 5 4 San Jose Sharks = 4.40 15 10 4.04( 8) 6 4 | 10 5 | 4.35 4 | 4.40 4 | 4.41 4 5 Washington Capitals = 4.31 14 10 3.96( 22) 3 6 | 3 7 | 4.28 8 | 4.32 5 | 4.22 7 6 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.31 15 9 4.03( 14) 8 5 | 10 6 | 4.39 3 | 4.29 7 | 4.45 3 7 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.29 14 13 4.07( 4) 1 8 | 3 9 | 4.31 6 | 4.31 6 | 4.16 9 8 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.27 16 11 3.96( 21) 2 4 | 6 8 | 4.21 9 | 4.27 8 | 4.21 8 9 Boston Bruins = 4.18 15 11 4.04( 9) 4 5 | 4 8 | 4.15 11 | 4.18 10 | 4.23 6 10 St. Louis Blues = 4.18 14 11 3.99( 19) 6 4 | 10 6 | 4.08 13 | 4.18 9 | 4.16 10 NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 11 Minnesota Wild = 4.16 12 12 3.95( 23) 4 2 | 6 3 | 4.31 7 | 4.16 11 | 4.15 11 12 Nashville Predators = 4.07 11 13 3.95( 25) 4 3 | 5 6 | 4.17 10 | 4.07 12 | 4.02 15 13 Los Angeles Kings = 4.05 13 12 4.01( 16) 3 6 | 6 9 | 4.02 15 | 4.05 13 | 4.04 13 14 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.05 14 13 3.97( 20) 2 7 | 5 8 | 4.02 16 | 4.04 14 | 4.11 12 15 Anaheim Ducks = 4.02 12 14 4.03( 12) 2 6 | 6 9 | 4.08 14 | 4.02 15 | 3.98 17 16 Edmonton Oilers = 4.01 14 13 3.91( 28) 3 3 | 4 6 | 4.11 12 | 4.01 17 | 4.03 14 17 Florida Panthers = 4.01 12 14 4.10( 2) 4 8 | 4 9 | 4.01 17 | 4.01 16 | 3.95 18 18 Ottawa Senators = 3.93 15 11 3.88( 30) 4 2 | 7 6 | 3.81 23 | 3.92 18 | 4.01 16 19 New Jersey Devils = 3.88 11 13 4.08( 3) 1 7 | 4 9 | 3.91 18 | 3.88 19 | 3.88 20 20 Detroit Red Wings = 3.85 12 14 4.04( 11) 3 7 | 5 9 | 3.86 19 | 3.85 20 | 3.86 21 NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 21 Calgary Flames = 3.83 13 15 4.03( 13) 5 5 | 8 10 | 3.77 24 | 3.82 21 | 3.89 19 22 New York Islanders = 3.80 9 15 4.05( 6) 2 10 | 5 13 | 3.86 20 | 3.81 22 | 3.76 24 23 Winnipeg Jets = 3.79 13 15 3.99( 18) 3 5 | 5 11 | 3.82 22 | 3.79 23 | 3.84 22 24 Dallas Stars = 3.77 10 16 4.01( 17) 1 6 | 5 10 | 3.74 26 | 3.78 24 | 3.65 26 25 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.74 10 15 4.14( 1) 5 4 | 6 8 | 3.82 21 | 3.73 25 | 3.79 23 26 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.69 10 14 4.04( 10) 2 5 | 6 7 | 3.74 25 | 3.68 26 | 3.76 25 27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.64 9 16 4.06( 5) 2 7 | 4 9 | 3.63 27 | 3.64 27 | 3.61 27 28 Colorado Avalanche = 3.53 9 14 3.95( 24) 3 5 | 6 8 | 3.46 28 | 3.53 28 | 3.47 29 29 Vancouver Canucks = 3.44 11 14 3.90( 29) 2 4 | 3 8 | 3.35 30 | 3.43 29 | 3.52 28 30 Arizona Coyotes = 3.37 8 16 4.05( 7) 2 6 | 7 8 | 3.43 29 | 3.37 30 | 3.37 30 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 4.13 4.13 ( 1) 8 4.13 ( 1) 2 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.00 4.01 ( 2) 8 4.01 ( 2) 3 CENTRAL (west) = 3.99 3.97 ( 3) 7 3.97 ( 3) 4 PACIFIC (west) = 3.90 3.87 ( 4) 7 3.87 ( 4) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 2 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.00 4.01 ( 2) 8 4.01 ( 2) 1 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 4.13 4.13 ( 1) 8 4.13 ( 1) 3 CENTRAL (west) = 3.99 3.97 ( 3) 7 3.97 ( 3) 4 PACIFIC (west) = 3.90 3.87 ( 4) 7 3.87 ( 4) __________________________________________________________________________________________________
By Division
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 ATLANTIC (EAST) = 4.00 4.01 ( 2) TEAMS= 8 4.01 ( 2) NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 1 Montreal Canadiens = 4.52 17 8 3.92( 27) 4 3 | 8 4 | 4.44 2 | 4.52 1 | 4.54 1 7 Tampa Bay Lightning = 4.29 14 13 4.07( 4) 1 8 | 3 9 | 4.31 6 | 4.31 6 | 4.16 9 9 Boston Bruins = 4.18 15 11 4.04( 9) 4 5 | 4 8 | 4.15 11 | 4.18 10 | 4.23 6 17 Florida Panthers = 4.01 12 14 4.10( 2) 4 8 | 4 9 | 4.01 17 | 4.01 16 | 3.95 18 18 Ottawa Senators = 3.93 15 11 3.88( 30) 4 2 | 7 6 | 3.81 23 | 3.92 18 | 4.01 16 20 Detroit Red Wings = 3.85 12 14 4.04( 11) 3 7 | 5 9 | 3.86 19 | 3.85 20 | 3.86 21 26 Toronto Maple Leafs = 3.69 10 14 4.04( 10) 2 5 | 6 7 | 3.74 25 | 3.68 26 | 3.76 25 27 Buffalo Sabres = 3.64 9 16 4.06( 5) 2 7 | 4 9 | 3.63 27 | 3.64 27 | 3.61 27 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 METROPOLITAN (EAST) = 4.13 4.13 ( 1) TEAMS= 8 4.13 ( 1) NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 2 New York Rangers = 4.49 17 9 3.92( 26) 7 3 | 10 3 | 4.55 1 | 4.49 2 | 4.52 2 3 Pittsburgh Penguins = 4.43 16 10 4.02( 15) 4 3 | 8 7 | 4.33 5 | 4.44 3 | 4.40 5 5 Washington Capitals = 4.31 14 10 3.96( 22) 3 6 | 3 7 | 4.28 8 | 4.32 5 | 4.22 7 6 Columbus Blue Jackets = 4.31 15 9 4.03( 14) 8 5 | 10 6 | 4.39 3 | 4.29 7 | 4.45 3 14 Philadelphia Flyers = 4.05 14 13 3.97( 20) 2 7 | 5 8 | 4.02 16 | 4.04 14 | 4.11 12 19 New Jersey Devils = 3.88 11 13 4.08( 3) 1 7 | 4 9 | 3.91 18 | 3.88 19 | 3.88 20 22 New York Islanders = 3.80 9 15 4.05( 6) 2 10 | 5 13 | 3.86 20 | 3.81 22 | 3.76 24 25 Carolina Hurricanes = 3.74 10 15 4.14( 1) 5 4 | 6 8 | 3.82 21 | 3.73 25 | 3.79 23 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 CENTRAL (west) = 3.99 3.97 ( 3) TEAMS= 7 3.97 ( 3) NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 8 Chicago Blackhawks = 4.27 16 11 3.96( 21) 2 4 | 6 8 | 4.21 9 | 4.27 8 | 4.21 8 10 St. Louis Blues = 4.18 14 11 3.99( 19) 6 4 | 10 6 | 4.08 13 | 4.18 9 | 4.16 10 11 Minnesota Wild = 4.16 12 12 3.95( 23) 4 2 | 6 3 | 4.31 7 | 4.16 11 | 4.15 11 12 Nashville Predators = 4.07 11 13 3.95( 25) 4 3 | 5 6 | 4.17 10 | 4.07 12 | 4.02 15 23 Winnipeg Jets = 3.79 13 15 3.99( 18) 3 5 | 5 11 | 3.82 22 | 3.79 23 | 3.84 22 24 Dallas Stars = 3.77 10 16 4.01( 17) 1 6 | 5 10 | 3.74 26 | 3.78 24 | 3.65 26 28 Colorado Avalanche = 3.53 9 14 3.95( 24) 3 5 | 6 8 | 3.46 28 | 3.53 28 | 3.47 29 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 PACIFIC (west) = 3.90 3.87 ( 4) TEAMS= 7 3.87 ( 4) NHL 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] [ 0.33] 4 San Jose Sharks = 4.40 15 10 4.04( 8) 6 4 | 10 5 | 4.35 4 | 4.40 4 | 4.41 4 13 Los Angeles Kings = 4.05 13 12 4.01( 16) 3 6 | 6 9 | 4.02 15 | 4.05 13 | 4.04 13 15 Anaheim Ducks = 4.02 12 14 4.03( 12) 2 6 | 6 9 | 4.08 14 | 4.02 15 | 3.98 17 16 Edmonton Oilers = 4.01 14 13 3.91( 28) 3 3 | 4 6 | 4.11 12 | 4.01 17 | 4.03 14 21 Calgary Flames = 3.83 13 15 4.03( 13) 5 5 | 8 10 | 3.77 24 | 3.82 21 | 3.89 19 29 Vancouver Canucks = 3.44 11 14 3.90( 29) 2 4 | 3 8 | 3.35 30 | 3.43 29 | 3.52 28 30 Arizona Coyotes = 3.37 8 16 4.05( 7) 2 6 | 7 8 | 3.43 29 | 3.37 30 | 3.37 30 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
New_Feature
HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== montreal canadie 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.06 ST. LOUIS BLUES montreal canadie 2.73 - 2.30 0.43 5.03 ST. LOUIS BLUES ~ 0.43 edmonton oilers 0.05 0.15 0.05 0.09 BUFFALO SABRES edmonton oilers 2.35 - 2.08 0.27 4.43 BUFFALO SABRES ~ 0.29 WINNIPEG JETS 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.31 detroit red wing WINNIPEG JETS 2.58 - 2.33 0.25 4.91 detroit red wing ~ 0.25 DALLAS STARS 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.09 calgary flames DALLAS STARS 2.81 - 2.76 0.05 5.58 calgary flames ~ 0.05 new york rangers 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.43 NEW YORK ISLANDE new york rangers 3.46 - 2.59 0.87 6.06 NEW YORK ISLANDE ~ 0.80 PHILADELPHIA FLY 0.37 0.33 0.35 0.48 florida panthers PHILADELPHIA FLY 3.28 - 2.70 0.58 5.98 florida panthers ~ 0.54 NEW JERSEY DEVIL 0.77 0.89 0.78 0.69 vancouver canuck NEW JERSEY DEVIL 3.25 - 1.98 1.27 5.23 vancouver canuck ~ 1.25 NASHVILLE PREDAT 0.86 1.03 0.86 0.88 colorado avalanc NASHVILLE PREDAT 3.22 - 1.73 1.49 4.96 colorado avalanc ~ 1.50 CHICAGO BLACKHAW 1.22 1.10 1.23 1.17 arizona coyotes CHICAGO BLACKHAW 3.19 - 2.02 1.17 5.21 arizona coyotes ~ 1.15 ====================================================================================================================================
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