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NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   1  Golden State Warriors   = 100.73   18   3   88.62(  29)    3   2  |    6   2  |  100.97    1 |  100.54    1 |  100.28    1
   2  Los Angeles Clippers    =  97.48   16   6   90.07(  12)    6   2  |   11   3  |   97.74    2 |   96.99    3 |   96.99    3
   3  Toronto Raptors         =  96.24   14   7   90.32(  10)    3   5  |    6   5  |   96.47    3 |   95.69    4 |   95.78    4
   4  San Antonio Spurs       =  95.88   17   4   90.76(   7)    5   3  |    7   3  |   95.41    4 |   97.05    2 |   97.18    2
   5  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  95.13   14   5   89.59(  20)    6   1  |    8   3  |   95.02    5 |   95.53    5 |   95.37    5
   6  Houston Rockets         =  94.12   14   7   91.91(   2)    5   5  |    7   5  |   94.01    6 |   94.04    6 |   94.36    6
   7  Utah Jazz               =  93.79   13   9   89.90(  16)    2   3  |    3   7  |   93.96    7 |   93.41    7 |   93.45    7
   8  Detroit Pistons         =  92.80   11  11   90.81(   6)    3   7  |    5   7  |   92.99    8 |   92.29    8 |   92.40    8
   9  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  91.85   14   8   88.90(  27)    3   4  |    4   4  |   91.65   11 |   92.22    9 |   92.29    9
  10  Boston Celtics          =  91.81   12   9   90.02(  14)    1   5  |    4   6  |   91.72   10 |   92.17   10 |   91.99   10
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
  11  Chicago Bulls           =  91.43   11   9   89.25(  23)    3   2  |    4   3  |   91.73    9 |   90.67   12 |   90.81   12
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  90.79   12   9   89.01(  26)    1   5  |    4   7  |   90.77   12 |   90.75   11 |   90.84   11
  13  Memphis Grizzlies       =  89.90   14   8   89.28(  22)    2   2  |    5   6  |   89.53   13 |   90.60   13 |   90.68   13
  14  Portland Trail Blazers  =  89.55   12  10   90.23(  11)    1   6  |    3   7  |   89.24   15 |   90.27   14 |   90.20   14
  15  Milwaukee Bucks         =  89.09   10   9   88.33(  30)    1   4  |    2   5  |   89.13   16 |   88.82   18 |   89.00   16
  16  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  88.86    6  14   89.60(  19)    0   5  |    2   8  |   89.30   14 |   88.20   20 |   87.88   20
  17  New York Knicks         =  88.70   11   9   89.96(  15)    1   7  |    7   8  |   88.34   20 |   89.30   15 |   89.43   15
  18  Atlanta Hawks           =  88.55   10  12   89.70(  18)    2   5  |    4   6  |   88.49   19 |   88.90   17 |   88.67   18
  19  Denver Nuggets          =  88.53    8  13   91.23(   4)    2   9  |    4  12  |   88.61   17 |   88.43   19 |   88.37   19
  20  Miami Heat              =  88.27    7  13   90.85(   5)    1   7  |    3  11  |   88.54   18 |   87.63   22 |   87.66   21
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
  21  Indiana Pacers          =  87.96   10  11   89.23(  24)    4   3  |    5   7  |   87.52   23 |   88.94   16 |   88.84   17
  22  Washington Wizards      =  87.87    7  12   89.48(  21)    1   6  |    1   8  |   87.99   21 |   87.79   21 |   87.58   22
  23  Sacramento Kings        =  87.52    7  13   90.66(   8)    3   5  |    4   7  |   87.75   22 |   87.00   23 |   87.00   24
  24  New Orleans Pelicans    =  87.22    7  15   90.03(  13)    1   5  |    5   9  |   87.43   24 |   86.88   25 |   86.77   25
  25  Los Angeles Lakers      =  86.71   10  13   91.53(   3)    3   7  |    4  10  |   86.30   26 |   87.00   24 |   87.50   23
  26  Dallas Mavericks        =  86.28    4  16   92.07(   1)    0   9  |    2  13  |   86.41   25 |   86.26   27 |   85.99   27
  27  Orlando Magic           =  86.27    9  12   89.03(  25)    3   3  |    3   8  |   86.10   27 |   86.58   26 |   86.59   26
  28  Phoenix Suns            =  84.41    6  14   90.52(   9)    1   5  |    2   7  |   84.66   28 |   83.90   28 |   83.82   28
  29  Brooklyn Nets           =  81.71    5  15   89.72(  17)    2   4  |    3  10  |   81.63   29 |   81.68   29 |   81.87   29
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.54    4  17   88.85(  28)    0   7  |    0  11  |   80.59   30 |   80.44   30 |   80.41   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 

Divisional Rankings

 
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.

      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   1  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  91.24      91.28  (  2)      5      91.27  (  1)
   2  PACIFIC   (west)        =  90.68      91.37  (  1)      5      91.11  (  2)
   3  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.51      90.68  (  3)      5      90.65  (  3)
   4  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.27      90.52  (  4)      5      90.50  (  4)
   5  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  88.30      88.35  (  5)      5      88.35  (  5)
   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.77      87.80  (  6)      5      87.79  (  6)


      DIVISION            CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.77      87.80  (  6)      5      87.79  (  6)
   1  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  91.24      91.28  (  2)      5      91.27  (  1)
   5  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  88.30      88.35  (  5)      5      88.35  (  5)
   3  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.51      90.68  (  3)      5      90.65  (  3)
   4  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.27      90.52  (  4)      5      90.50  (  4)
   2  PACIFIC   (west)        =  90.68      91.37  (  1)      5      91.11  (  2)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 

By Division

 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   6  ATLANTIC  (EAST)        =  87.77      87.80  (  6)   TEAMS=  5      87.79  (  6)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   3  Toronto Raptors         =  96.24   14   7   90.32(  10)    3   5  |    6   5  |   96.47    3 |   95.69    4 |   95.78    4
  10  Boston Celtics          =  91.81   12   9   90.02(  14)    1   5  |    4   6  |   91.72   10 |   92.17   10 |   91.99   10
  17  New York Knicks         =  88.70   11   9   89.96(  15)    1   7  |    7   8  |   88.34   20 |   89.30   15 |   89.43   15
  29  Brooklyn Nets           =  81.71    5  15   89.72(  17)    2   4  |    3  10  |   81.63   29 |   81.68   29 |   81.87   29
  30  Philadelphia 76ers      =  80.54    4  17   88.85(  28)    0   7  |    0  11  |   80.59   30 |   80.44   30 |   80.41   30
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   1  CENTRAL   (EAST)        =  91.24      91.28  (  2)   TEAMS=  5      91.27  (  1)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   5  Cleveland Cavaliers     =  95.13   14   5   89.59(  20)    6   1  |    8   3  |   95.02    5 |   95.53    5 |   95.37    5
   8  Detroit Pistons         =  92.80   11  11   90.81(   6)    3   7  |    5   7  |   92.99    8 |   92.29    8 |   92.40    8
  11  Chicago Bulls           =  91.43   11   9   89.25(  23)    3   2  |    4   3  |   91.73    9 |   90.67   12 |   90.81   12
  15  Milwaukee Bucks         =  89.09   10   9   88.33(  30)    1   4  |    2   5  |   89.13   16 |   88.82   18 |   89.00   16
  21  Indiana Pacers          =  87.96   10  11   89.23(  24)    4   3  |    5   7  |   87.52   23 |   88.94   16 |   88.84   17
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   5  SOUTHEAST (EAST)        =  88.30      88.35  (  5)   TEAMS=  5      88.35  (  5)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
  12  Charlotte Hornets       =  90.79   12   9   89.01(  26)    1   5  |    4   7  |   90.77   12 |   90.75   11 |   90.84   11
  18  Atlanta Hawks           =  88.55   10  12   89.70(  18)    2   5  |    4   6  |   88.49   19 |   88.90   17 |   88.67   18
  20  Miami Heat              =  88.27    7  13   90.85(   5)    1   7  |    3  11  |   88.54   18 |   87.63   22 |   87.66   21
  22  Washington Wizards      =  87.87    7  12   89.48(  21)    1   6  |    1   8  |   87.99   21 |   87.79   21 |   87.58   22
  27  Orlando Magic           =  86.27    9  12   89.03(  25)    3   3  |    3   8  |   86.10   27 |   86.58   26 |   86.59   26
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   3  SOUTHWEST (west)        =  90.51      90.68  (  3)   TEAMS=  5      90.65  (  3)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   4  San Antonio Spurs       =  95.88   17   4   90.76(   7)    5   3  |    7   3  |   95.41    4 |   97.05    2 |   97.18    2
   6  Houston Rockets         =  94.12   14   7   91.91(   2)    5   5  |    7   5  |   94.01    6 |   94.04    6 |   94.36    6
  13  Memphis Grizzlies       =  89.90   14   8   89.28(  22)    2   2  |    5   6  |   89.53   13 |   90.60   13 |   90.68   13
  24  New Orleans Pelicans    =  87.22    7  15   90.03(  13)    1   5  |    5   9  |   87.43   24 |   86.88   25 |   86.77   25
  26  Dallas Mavericks        =  86.28    4  16   92.07(   1)    0   9  |    2  13  |   86.41   25 |   86.26   27 |   85.99   27
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   4  NORTHWEST (west)        =  90.27      90.52  (  4)   TEAMS=  5      90.50  (  4)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   7  Utah Jazz               =  93.79   13   9   89.90(  16)    2   3  |    3   7  |   93.96    7 |   93.41    7 |   93.45    7
   9  Oklahoma City Thunder   =  91.85   14   8   88.90(  27)    3   4  |    4   4  |   91.65   11 |   92.22    9 |   92.29    9
  14  Portland Trail Blazers  =  89.55   12  10   90.23(  11)    1   6  |    3   7  |   89.24   15 |   90.27   14 |   90.20   14
  16  Minnesota Timberwolves  =  88.86    6  14   89.60(  19)    0   5  |    2   8  |   89.30   14 |   88.20   20 |   87.88   20
  19  Denver Nuggets          =  88.53    8  13   91.23(   4)    2   9  |    4  12  |   88.61   17 |   88.43   19 |   88.37   19
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

   2  PACIFIC   (west)        =  90.68      91.37  (  1)   TEAMS=  5      91.11  (  2)
NBA 2016-2017 through games of 2016 December 5 Monday                                                                                           
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT    
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.93]                                               [  2.93]       [  2.93]       [  2.93]
   1  Golden State Warriors   = 100.73   18   3   88.62(  29)    3   2  |    6   2  |  100.97    1 |  100.54    1 |  100.28    1
   2  Los Angeles Clippers    =  97.48   16   6   90.07(  12)    6   2  |   11   3  |   97.74    2 |   96.99    3 |   96.99    3
  23  Sacramento Kings        =  87.52    7  13   90.66(   8)    3   5  |    4   7  |   87.75   22 |   87.00   23 |   87.00   24
  25  Los Angeles Lakers      =  86.71   10  13   91.53(   3)    3   7  |    4  10  |   86.30   26 |   87.00   24 |   87.50   23
  28  Phoenix Suns            =  84.41    6  14   90.52(   9)    1   5  |    2   7  |   84.66   28 |   83.90   28 |   83.82   28
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 

 

New_Feature


HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location)
The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games.
In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied.
Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions
FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX
====================================================================================================================================
MIAMI HEAT 2.51 3.13 1.26 1.16 new york knicks MIAMI HEAT 103.07 - 99.15 3.92 202.21 new york knicks ~ 3.97
san antonio spur 4.09 3.18 5.92 6.38 MINNESOTA TIMBER san antonio spur 104.70 - 100.51 4.19 205.22 MINNESOTA TIMBER ~ 4.21
DETROIT PISTONS 4.30 4.20 4.55 4.53 chicago bulls DETROIT PISTONS 97.67 - 93.47 4.20 191.14 chicago bulls ~ 4.37
WASHINGTON WIZAR 4.53 4.82 4.15 3.93 orlando magic WASHINGTON WIZAR 100.46 - 95.76 4.70 196.21 orlando magic ~ 4.83
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIE 12.29 11.87 13.10 13.20 philadelphia 76e MEMPHIS GRIZZLIE 104.24 - 91.42 12.82 195.66 philadelphia 76e ~ 13.20
UTAH JAZZ 12.31 12.23 12.45 12.57 phoenix suns UTAH JAZZ 107.81 - 94.22 13.60 202.03 phoenix suns ~ 13.78
====================================================================================================================================
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