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Se Actualiza los Martes NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 1 New England Patriots = 26.86 10 2 0 18.31( 31) 2 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 26.87 1 | 26.96 1 | 26.85 2 2 Dallas Cowboys = 26.63 11 1 0 18.96( 27) 2 0 0 | 7 0 0 | 26.33 2 | 26.90 2 | 27.14 1 3 Seattle Seahawks = 24.77 8 3 1 19.41( 22) 3 0 0 | 4 0 1 | 24.70 3 | 25.02 3 | 24.88 3 4 Denver Broncos = 24.54 8 4 0 20.17( 18) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 24.60 4 | 24.54 5 | 24.46 5 5 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.17 7 5 0 20.37( 16) 1 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 24.35 6 | 24.17 7 | 23.94 7 6 Kansas City Chiefs = 24.15 9 3 0 20.51( 12) 3 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 23.78 7 | 24.66 4 | 24.74 4 7 Atlanta Falcons = 24.01 7 5 0 21.58( 1) 2 2 0 | 4 3 0 | 24.44 5 | 23.37 8 | 23.47 8 8 Oakland Raiders = 23.72 10 2 0 20.21( 17) 3 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 23.31 8 | 24.20 6 | 24.38 6 9 Buffalo Bills = 22.50 6 6 0 20.46( 14) 1 4 0 | 2 4 0 | 22.89 9 | 22.03 9 | 22.00 9 10 Baltimore Ravens = 21.78 7 5 0 18.15( 32) 2 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 21.99 11 | 21.52 11 | 21.50 11 NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 11 Minnesota Vikings = 21.77 6 6 0 20.08( 20) 0 1 0 | 2 5 0 | 21.92 12 | 21.72 10 | 21.56 10 12 Philadelphia Eagles = 21.56 5 7 0 21.30( 2) 2 2 0 | 3 5 0 | 22.40 10 | 20.50 16 | 20.47 17 13 Arizona Cardinals = 21.34 5 6 1 18.96( 28) 0 3 1 | 1 4 1 | 21.57 13 | 21.30 12 | 21.04 12 14 Washington Redskins = 20.92 6 5 1 21.22( 5) 1 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 21.07 14 | 20.60 15 | 20.72 15 15 Detroit Lions = 20.53 8 4 0 18.76( 29) 0 0 0 | 4 1 0 | 20.29 16 | 20.61 14 | 20.87 14 16 Green Bay Packers = 20.52 6 6 0 19.94( 21) 0 2 0 | 2 4 0 | 20.20 18 | 21.14 13 | 20.98 13 17 San Diego Chargers = 20.44 5 7 0 20.61( 11) 2 3 0 | 2 3 0 | 21.04 15 | 19.61 21 | 19.62 21 18 New York Giants = 20.23 8 4 0 19.35( 24) 2 1 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.95 20 | 20.46 17 | 20.62 16 19 Cincinnati Bengals = 20.13 4 7 1 21.26( 4) 0 6 0 | 1 6 1 | 20.22 17 | 20.22 18 | 20.02 19 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 19.95 7 5 0 20.72( 9) 3 3 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.84 21 | 19.93 19 | 20.12 18 NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 21 New Orleans Saints = 19.53 5 7 0 20.15( 19) 1 4 0 | 1 5 0 | 20.15 19 | 18.63 23 | 18.64 23 22 Indianapolis Colts = 19.32 6 6 0 18.96( 26) 0 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 19.07 22 | 19.69 20 | 19.68 20 23 Carolina Panthers = 18.70 4 8 0 20.91( 6) 0 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 18.52 23 | 19.20 22 | 18.95 22 24 Tennessee Titans = 17.99 6 6 0 18.44( 30) 0 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 18.26 24 | 17.35 26 | 17.62 26 25 Miami Dolphins = 17.80 7 5 0 19.23( 25) 2 3 0 | 2 3 0 | 17.20 25 | 18.37 24 | 18.58 24 26 Houston Texans = 17.42 6 6 0 20.45( 15) 1 3 0 | 2 5 0 | 16.59 26 | 18.37 25 | 18.46 25 27 Los Angeles Rams = 14.99 4 8 0 20.46( 13) 1 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 14.63 27 | 15.45 27 | 15.45 27 28 Chicago Bears = 14.62 3 9 0 19.38( 23) 0 1 0 | 2 3 0 | 14.60 28 | 14.67 29 | 14.66 28 29 Jacksonville Jaguars = 14.11 2 10 0 20.85( 7) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 14.31 29 | 13.95 30 | 13.80 30 30 New York Jets = 13.96 3 9 0 20.68( 10) 2 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 13.36 30 | 14.70 28 | 14.65 29 NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 31 San Francisco 49ers = 11.68 1 11 0 20.79( 8) 0 4 0 | 0 6 0 | 11.83 31 | 11.51 31 | 11.45 31 32 Cleveland Browns = 9.35 0 12 0 21.27( 3) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 9.71 32 | 8.64 32 | 8.69 32 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Divisional Rankings
There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".
The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.
DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 1 (afc west) = 23.45 23.21 ( 1) 4 23.22 ( 1) 2 (NFC EAST) = 21.97 22.33 ( 2) 4 22.30 ( 2) 3 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.28 20.55 ( 3) 4 20.53 ( 3) 4 (afc east) = 20.24 20.28 ( 4) 4 20.27 ( 4) 5 (NFC NORTH) = 19.75 19.36 ( 5) 4 19.41 ( 5) 6 (afc north) = 19.56 18.86 ( 6) 4 19.16 ( 6) 7 (NFC WEST) = 18.19 18.20 ( 7) 4 18.19 ( 7) 8 (afc south) = 17.38 17.21 ( 8) 4 17.22 ( 8) DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50% 2 (NFC EAST) = 21.97 22.33 ( 2) 4 22.30 ( 2) 5 (NFC NORTH) = 19.75 19.36 ( 5) 4 19.41 ( 5) 3 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.28 20.55 ( 3) 4 20.53 ( 3) 7 (NFC WEST) = 18.19 18.20 ( 7) 4 18.19 ( 7) 4 (afc east) = 20.24 20.28 ( 4) 4 20.27 ( 4) 6 (afc north) = 19.56 18.86 ( 6) 4 19.16 ( 6) 8 (afc south) = 17.38 17.21 ( 8) 4 17.22 ( 8) 1 (afc west) = 23.45 23.21 ( 1) 4 23.22 ( 1) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________
By Division
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 (NFC EAST) = 21.97 22.33 ( 2) TEAMS= 4 22.30 ( 2) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 2 Dallas Cowboys = 26.63 11 1 0 18.96( 27) 2 0 0 | 7 0 0 | 26.33 2 | 26.90 2 | 27.14 1 12 Philadelphia Eagles = 21.56 5 7 0 21.30( 2) 2 2 0 | 3 5 0 | 22.40 10 | 20.50 16 | 20.47 17 14 Washington Redskins = 20.92 6 5 1 21.22( 5) 1 3 0 | 4 5 0 | 21.07 14 | 20.60 15 | 20.72 15 18 New York Giants = 20.23 8 4 0 19.35( 24) 2 1 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.95 20 | 20.46 17 | 20.62 16 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 (NFC NORTH) = 19.75 19.36 ( 5) TEAMS= 4 19.41 ( 5) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 11 Minnesota Vikings = 21.77 6 6 0 20.08( 20) 0 1 0 | 2 5 0 | 21.92 12 | 21.72 10 | 21.56 10 15 Detroit Lions = 20.53 8 4 0 18.76( 29) 0 0 0 | 4 1 0 | 20.29 16 | 20.61 14 | 20.87 14 16 Green Bay Packers = 20.52 6 6 0 19.94( 21) 0 2 0 | 2 4 0 | 20.20 18 | 21.14 13 | 20.98 13 28 Chicago Bears = 14.62 3 9 0 19.38( 23) 0 1 0 | 2 3 0 | 14.60 28 | 14.67 29 | 14.66 28 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 (NFC SOUTH) = 20.28 20.55 ( 3) TEAMS= 4 20.53 ( 3) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 7 Atlanta Falcons = 24.01 7 5 0 21.58( 1) 2 2 0 | 4 3 0 | 24.44 5 | 23.37 8 | 23.47 8 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 19.95 7 5 0 20.72( 9) 3 3 0 | 3 4 0 | 19.84 21 | 19.93 19 | 20.12 18 21 New Orleans Saints = 19.53 5 7 0 20.15( 19) 1 4 0 | 1 5 0 | 20.15 19 | 18.63 23 | 18.64 23 23 Carolina Panthers = 18.70 4 8 0 20.91( 6) 0 5 0 | 1 6 0 | 18.52 23 | 19.20 22 | 18.95 22 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 (NFC WEST) = 18.19 18.20 ( 7) TEAMS= 4 18.19 ( 7) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 3 Seattle Seahawks = 24.77 8 3 1 19.41( 22) 3 0 0 | 4 0 1 | 24.70 3 | 25.02 3 | 24.88 3 13 Arizona Cardinals = 21.34 5 6 1 18.96( 28) 0 3 1 | 1 4 1 | 21.57 13 | 21.30 12 | 21.04 12 27 Los Angeles Rams = 14.99 4 8 0 20.46( 13) 1 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 14.63 27 | 15.45 27 | 15.45 27 31 San Francisco 49ers = 11.68 1 11 0 20.79( 8) 0 4 0 | 0 6 0 | 11.83 31 | 11.51 31 | 11.45 31 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 (afc east) = 20.24 20.28 ( 4) TEAMS= 4 20.27 ( 4) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 1 New England Patriots = 26.86 10 2 0 18.31( 31) 2 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 26.87 1 | 26.96 1 | 26.85 2 9 Buffalo Bills = 22.50 6 6 0 20.46( 14) 1 4 0 | 2 4 0 | 22.89 9 | 22.03 9 | 22.00 9 25 Miami Dolphins = 17.80 7 5 0 19.23( 25) 2 3 0 | 2 3 0 | 17.20 25 | 18.37 24 | 18.58 24 30 New York Jets = 13.96 3 9 0 20.68( 10) 2 4 0 | 2 5 0 | 13.36 30 | 14.70 28 | 14.65 29 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 6 (afc north) = 19.56 18.86 ( 6) TEAMS= 4 19.16 ( 6) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 5 Pittsburgh Steelers = 24.17 7 5 0 20.37( 16) 1 3 0 | 2 4 0 | 24.35 6 | 24.17 7 | 23.94 7 10 Baltimore Ravens = 21.78 7 5 0 18.15( 32) 2 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 21.99 11 | 21.52 11 | 21.50 11 19 Cincinnati Bengals = 20.13 4 7 1 21.26( 4) 0 6 0 | 1 6 1 | 20.22 17 | 20.22 18 | 20.02 19 32 Cleveland Browns = 9.35 0 12 0 21.27( 3) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 9.71 32 | 8.64 32 | 8.69 32 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 8 (afc south) = 17.38 17.21 ( 8) TEAMS= 4 17.22 ( 8) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 22 Indianapolis Colts = 19.32 6 6 0 18.96( 26) 0 3 0 | 1 4 0 | 19.07 22 | 19.69 20 | 19.68 20 24 Tennessee Titans = 17.99 6 6 0 18.44( 30) 0 1 0 | 2 2 0 | 18.26 24 | 17.35 26 | 17.62 26 26 Houston Texans = 17.42 6 6 0 20.45( 15) 1 3 0 | 2 5 0 | 16.59 26 | 18.37 25 | 18.46 25 29 Jacksonville Jaguars = 14.11 2 10 0 20.85( 7) 0 5 0 | 0 7 0 | 14.31 29 | 13.95 30 | 13.80 30 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1 (afc west) = 23.45 23.21 ( 1) TEAMS= 4 23.22 ( 1) NFL 2016 through games of December 5 Monday - Week 13 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] [ 2.69] 4 Denver Broncos = 24.54 8 4 0 20.17( 18) 0 3 0 | 0 3 0 | 24.60 4 | 24.54 5 | 24.46 5 6 Kansas City Chiefs = 24.15 9 3 0 20.51( 12) 3 1 0 | 3 1 0 | 23.78 7 | 24.66 4 | 24.74 4 8 Oakland Raiders = 23.72 10 2 0 20.21( 17) 3 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 23.31 8 | 24.20 6 | 24.38 6 17 San Diego Chargers = 20.44 5 7 0 20.61( 11) 2 3 0 | 2 3 0 | 21.04 15 | 19.61 21 | 19.62 21 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
New_Feature
HOME team in CAPS (if both teams in lower case, game is at neutral location) The HOME ADVANTAGE has been factored in for all HOME and CLOSEBY games. No home edge is applied in neutral games. In a CLOSEBY game, half of the normal home advantage has been applied. Regular Method Predictions "New Feature" Offense-Defense Method Predictions FAVORITE Rating Points Gold Recent UNDERDOG FAVORITE WINNER LOSER SPREAD TOTAL UNDERDOG APPROX ==================================================================================================================================== SAN FRANCISCO 49 0.40 1.16 -0.50 -0.50 new york jets SAN FRANCISCO 49 25.39 - 22.30 3.09 47.70 new york jets ~ 2.97 arizona cardinal 0.86 1.68 0.24 -0.24 MIAMI DOLPHINS arizona cardinal 21.61 - 19.58 2.03 41.18 MIAMI DOLPHINS ~ 2.10 CAROLINA PANTHER 0.95 0.17 2.28 2.02 san diego charge san diego charge 28.56 - 26.89 1.67 55.45 CAROLINA PANTHER ~ 1.49 BUFFALO BILLS 1.02 1.23 0.55 0.75 pittsburgh steel BUFFALO BILLS 23.57 - 22.27 1.30 45.83 pittsburgh steel ~ 1.27 seattle seahawks 1.56 1.81 1.19 1.21 GREEN BAY PACKER seattle seahawks 19.22 - 18.50 0.72 37.72 GREEN BAY PACKER ~ 0.77 TAMPA BAY BUCCAN 3.11 2.37 3.99 4.17 new orleans sain TAMPA BAY BUCCAN 28.67 - 25.66 3.01 54.33 new orleans sain ~ 2.70 KANSAS CITY CHIE 3.12 3.16 3.16 3.06 oakland raiders KANSAS CITY CHIE 24.68 - 21.46 3.22 46.14 oakland raiders ~ 3.15 PHILADELPHIA EAG 3.33 4.02 2.59 2.44 washington redsk PHILADELPHIA EAG 26.56 - 21.66 4.90 48.22 washington redsk ~ 4.68 dallas cowboys 3.72 3.69 3.75 3.82 NEW YORK GIANTS dallas cowboys 23.98 - 19.32 4.66 43.30 NEW YORK GIANTS ~ 4.71 denver broncos 3.86 3.65 4.50 4.15 TENNESSEE TITANS denver broncos 23.28 - 19.05 4.23 42.33 TENNESSEE TITANS ~ 4.31 INDIANAPOLIS COL 4.59 5.18 4.01 3.91 houston texans INDIANAPOLIS COL 24.77 - 19.18 5.59 43.95 houston texans ~ 5.60 minnesota viking 4.97 4.92 5.08 5.06 JACKSONVILLE JAG minnesota viking 20.63 - 15.41 5.22 36.04 JACKSONVILLE JAG ~ 5.72 atlanta falcons 6.32 7.12 5.23 5.33 LOS ANGELES RAMS atlanta falcons 28.20 - 18.31 9.89 46.51 LOS ANGELES RAMS ~ 9.67 NEW ENGLAND PATR 7.77 7.58 8.13 8.04 baltimore ravens NEW ENGLAND PATR 21.13 - 14.66 6.47 35.78 baltimore ravens ~ 7.12 cincinnati benga 8.09 7.81 8.88 8.64 CLEVELAND BROWNS cincinnati benga 26.43 - 17.15 9.27 43.58 CLEVELAND BROWNS ~ 9.38 DETROIT LIONS 8.59 8.38 8.62 8.91 chicago bears DETROIT LIONS 23.57 - 14.84 8.72 38.41 chicago bears ~ 9.32 ====================================================================================================================================
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